{"id":32210,"date":"2026-03-24T14:09:20","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T06:09:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.dukekunshan.edu.cn\/?post_type=research_news&#038;p=32210"},"modified":"2026-03-24T14:09:22","modified_gmt":"2026-03-24T06:09:22","slug":"research-reveals-new-climate-change-impact","status":"publish","type":"research_news","link":"https:\/\/news.dukekunshan.edu.cn\/zh-hans\/research-news\/research-reveals-new-climate-change-impact\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7814\u7a76\u767b\u4e0a\u9876\u7ea7\u671f\u520a\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\u65b0\u5f71\u54cd"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u8fd1\u65e5\uff0c\u6606\u5c71\u675c\u514b\u5927\u5b66\u5927\u6c14\u4e0e\u73af\u5883\u79d1\u5b66\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\u9a6c\u4e01\u4e0e\u5317\u4eac\u5927\u5b66\u5927\u6c14\u4e0e\u6d77\u6d0b\u79d1\u5b66\u7cfb\u957f\u8058\u526f\u6559\u6388\u8042\u7ee9\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e\u5730\u7403\u79d1\u5b66\u9876\u7ea7\u671f\u520a\u300a\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u5feb\u62a5\u300b\uff08Geophysical Research Letters\uff09\u3002\u8bba\u6587\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f5c\u8005\u4e3a\u9a6c\u4e01\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u901a\u8baf\u4f5c\u8005\u4e3a\u8042\u7ee9\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u6606\u5c71\u675c\u514b\u5927\u5b662025\u5c4a\u672c\u79d1\u6bd5\u4e1a\u751f\u5f20\u5143\u4e1c\u4e3a\u5408\u4f5c\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u9898\u4e3a\u300a\u5357\u534a\u7403\u73af\u72b6\u6a21\u53d8\u7387\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u4e0e\u672a\u6765\u589e\u5f3a\u7279\u5f81\u300b\uff08Amplifying Variability of the Southern Annular Mode in the Past and Future\uff09\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5357\u534a\u7403\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u73af\u6d41\u6a21\u6001\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5357\u534a\u7403\u73af\u72b6\u6a21\uff08Southern Annular Mode\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7b80\u79f0SAM\uff09\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5e73\u5747\u72b6\u6001\u6b63\u5728\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5176\u65e5\u5e38\u6ce2\u52a8\u5e45\u5ea6\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb80\u5e74\u4e2d\u4e5f\u663e\u8457\u589e\u5f3a\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u672a\u6765\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u8fd8\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u5f3a\u3002\u8be5\u6210\u679c\u4e3a\u7406\u89e3\u5357\u534a\u7403\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9891\u53d1\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u673a\u5236\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e3a\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u5e94\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u6c14\u5019\u98ce\u9669\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u4f9d\u636e\u3002\u8fd9\u9879\u6210\u679c\u8fd8\u88ab\u300a\u81ea\u7136\u00b7\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u300b\uff08Nature Climate Change\uff092026\u5e743\u6708\u520a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u4eae\u70b9\u7279\u522b\u62a5\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5357\u534a\u7403\u73af\u72b6\u6a21\uff08SAM\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4f5c\u5357\u6781\u6d9b\u52a8\uff0c\u662f\u5357\u534a\u7403\u4e2d\u9ad8\u7eac\u5ea6\u6700\u5173\u952e\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u73af\u6d41\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f62\u8c61\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u73af\u7ed5\u5730\u7403\u7684\u4e2d\u7eac\u5ea6\u897f\u98ce\u6025\u6d41\u5728\u5357\u5317\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u201c\u8df7\u8df7\u677f\u201d\u3002\u8fd9\u80a1\u9ad8\u901f\u98ce\u5e26\u7684\u5357\u5317\u6446\u52a8\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u5357\u7f8e\u6d32\u3001\u5357\u6781\u6d32\u53ca\u5357\u5927\u6d0b\u7b49\u533a\u57df\u7684\u964d\u6c34\u3001\u98ce\u66b4\u3001\u6c14\u6e29\u751a\u81f3\u6d77\u51b0\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u5730\u7403\u5357\u534a\u7403\u7684\u201c\u6c14\u5019\u8c03\u8282\u5668\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9a6c\u4e01\u6559\u6388\u957f\u671f\u5173\u6ce8\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5927\u6c14\u73af\u6d41\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u7387\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u805a\u7126\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5357\u534a\u7403\u4e2d\u9ad8\u7eac\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u7387\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u5357\u534a\u7403\u73af\u72b6\u6a21\uff08SAM\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"978\" src=\"https:\/\/newstatic.dukekunshan.edu.cn\/news\/2026\/03\/24132027\/Research-reveals-new-climate-change-impact.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-32211\" style=\"width:350px\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/newstatic.dukekunshan.edu.cn\/news\/2026\/03\/24132027\/Research-reveals-new-climate-change-impact.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/newstatic.dukekunshan.edu.cn\/news\/2026\/03\/24132027\/Research-reveals-new-climate-change-impact-400x382.jpg 400w, https:\/\/newstatic.dukekunshan.edu.cn\/news\/2026\/03\/24132027\/Research-reveals-new-climate-change-impact-768x734.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201c\u5047\u8bbe\u4f60\u8981\u4ece\u6606\u5c71\u53bb\u9ed1\u9f99\u6c5f\u65c5\u884c\uff0c\u4f60\u4e0d\u4ec5\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u5f53\u5730\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\uff0c\u66f4\u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u6c14\u6e29\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u5e94\u5bf9\u6700\u574f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u201d\u9a6c\u4e01\u6559\u6388\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u201c\u4ee5\u5f80\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u591a\u805a\u7126\u4e8eSAM\u5e73\u5747\u6001\u7684\u504f\u79fb\uff0c\u800c\u6781\u5c11\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u63a2\u8ba8\u5176\u53d8\u7387\u632f\u5e45\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u54cd\u5e94\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u5173\u952e\u3001\u4f46\u957f\u671f\u88ab\u5ffd\u89c6\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u5728\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u2018\u8df7\u8df7\u677f\u2019\u7684\u6446\u52a8\u5e45\u5ea6\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u53d8\u5316\uff1f\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e3a\u56de\u7b54\u8fd9\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u56e2\u961f\u5206\u6790\u4e861940\u5e74\u81f32019\u5e74\u7684\u6b27\u6d32\u4e2d\u671f\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u4e2d\u5fc3ERA5\u518d\u5206\u6790\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u5730\u9762\u53f0\u7ad9\u7684\u964d\u6c34\u89c2\u6d4b\u8d44\u6599\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4e0e1940\u5e74\u81f31979\u5e74\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c1980\u5e74\u81f32019\u5e74SAM\u65e5\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u632f\u5e45\u5e73\u5747\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u7ea614%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u53d8\u5316\u5e76\u975e\u5355\u7eaf\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u66f4\u9891\u7e41\u3001\u66f4\u5267\u70c8\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u5f3a\u6b63\u4f4d\u76f8SAM\u4e8b\u4ef6\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u76f8\u5173\u964d\u6c34\u5f02\u5e38\u5cf0\u503c\u660e\u663e\u589e\u5f3a\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u533a\u57df\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u964d\u6c34\u54cd\u5e94\u589e\u5e45\u7ea6\u8fbe40%\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0cSAM\u632f\u5e45\u7684\u589e\u5f3a\u5e76\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5df2\u7ecf\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u66f4\u663e\u8457\u7684\u533a\u57df\u6027\u98ce\u573a\u3001\u6e29\u5ea6\u548c\u964d\u6c34\u5f02\u5e38\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"502\" height=\"237\" src=\"https:\/\/newstatic.dukekunshan.edu.cn\/news\/2026\/03\/24134903\/Research-reveals-new-climate-change-impact-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-32215\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/newstatic.dukekunshan.edu.cn\/news\/2026\/03\/24134903\/Research-reveals-new-climate-change-impact-2.png 502w, https:\/\/newstatic.dukekunshan.edu.cn\/news\/2026\/03\/24134903\/Research-reveals-new-climate-change-impact-2-400x189.png 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 502px) 100vw, 502px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>ERA5 \u518d\u5206\u6790\u8d44\u6599\u4e2d\uff0cSAM \u53d8\u7387\u968f\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u6f14\u5316\u3002\u56fe\u4e2d\u53ef\u89c1SAM \u53d8\u7387\u5728\u540e40 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class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"594\" height=\"792\" src=\"https:\/\/newstatic.dukekunshan.edu.cn\/news\/2026\/03\/24132034\/Research-reveals-new-climate-change-impact.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-32213\" style=\"width:350px\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/newstatic.dukekunshan.edu.cn\/news\/2026\/03\/24132034\/Research-reveals-new-climate-change-impact.png 594w, https:\/\/newstatic.dukekunshan.edu.cn\/news\/2026\/03\/24132034\/Research-reveals-new-climate-change-impact-300x400.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 594px) 100vw, 594px\" 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\uff08 American Geophysical Union ) &nbsp;\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u6d77\u62a5\u5c55\u793a\u3002\u8fd9\u6bb5\u73cd\u8d35\u7684\u7ecf\u5386\u8ba9\u4ed6\u5b66\u4f1a\u4e86\u5c06\u5927\u6570\u636e\u63d0\u53d6\u3001\u6e05\u7406\u4e0e\u6574\u5408\uff0c\u8d85\u7ea7\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u96c6\u7fa4\u4f7f\u7528\u548c\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u5efa\u6a21\u7b49\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u77e5\u8bc6\u771f\u6b63\u8fd0\u7528\u5230\u79d1\u7814\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e3a\u672c\u6b21\u7814\u7a76\u6253\u4e0b\u4e86\u575a\u5b9e\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u8ba9\u4ed6\u5f97\u4ee5\u4e0a\u624b\u66f4\u5feb\u5e76\u5b8c\u6210\u6570\u636e\u7ba1\u9053\u5f00\u53d1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"554\" height=\"464\" src=\"https:\/\/newstatic.dukekunshan.edu.cn\/news\/2026\/03\/24135037\/Research-reveals-new-climate-change-impact-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-32217\" title=\"\" 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